By Jeff Fuller (@jjfuller72)
PART 2: Conference Comparisons Pre & Post Realignment with a focus on the “Power 4”
Part 1 of this series contained the “Talent vs Results” data for all FBS conferences, both pre- and post- 2022 conference realignment with a team-by-team breakdown of the SEC. Those tables are reposted below for reference. As discussed in that installment’s “Methods” section, TTR is the average 247 Team Talent Composite Ranking from 2015-24 and MCR is the average Massey Composite Ranking over the same time.
Conference comparison: Current Alignment
Conference comparison: Pre-2023 Realignment
The general “underperformance” of the pre-breakup Pac-12 programs transitioned into their new conference homes in the Big Ten, ACC & Big12. Additionally, while Texas and Oklahoma’s combined averages of -10 & -13 at 10 & 5 years were worse than the average remaining Big12 teams, they were better than the average team in their new SEC home.
How did the teams from the three other “Power” conferences fare?
Big Ten:
-Iowa stands out as the clear “overperformer” of the group, with a strong trend toward the “upper midwest” teams of Minnesota & Wisconsin (with the notable exception of Nebraska) also out-pacing their talent level (though Wisconsin has trended downward of late, as evidenced by the 5 vs 10 yr results).
-Ohio St is the epitome of consistency, averaging both the 3rd best TTR and MCR, for both the 5 and 10 year periods, and therefore, no underperformance (and it’s hard to overperform such a high talent level as discussed in the “Statistical Reminder/Quirks” section at the end of Part 1.) Michigan and Penn State are also not underperforming their talent much either.
-While newcomers Washington and Oregon helped bring up the conference average a bit, USC and UCLA counted as two of the worst 5 “underperformers” in the Big Ten. In fact, none of those 5 most underperformers were members of the Big Ten before 2011. In fact, the eleven pre-2011 Big Ten members averaged relatively small underperformances of -3 & -7 over 5 & 10 yr spans, while the seven newer members averaged -23 & -16 respectively. The triplets of Nebraska, Rutgers, and Maryland averaged a pitiful -34 over 10 years, possibly showing that they have never quite adapted to their new conference homes (Rutgers even had the “statistical advantage” of having the lowest TTR in the entire Big Ten, but finished with, far and away, the lowest MCR at 92nd nationally)
Big 12
The Big 12, as currently constituted, stands out among the Power conferences as having as many overperformers as underperformers. Recall that the SEC had no overperformers, and the Big12’s 7 overperformers were as many as the three other Power conferences combined. In fact, among all P4 teams, 5 of the 6 highest overperformers over 10 years were Big 12 school with Kansas St being the highest followed by BYU, Iowa, Iowa St, Oklahoma St, & Utah. While Utah brought solid over-performance of +13 & +5 at 10/5 yrs, the other three of the “4 Corner schools” averaged -25 & -22 respectively. If all four of those former Pac-12 teams were excluded, the Big12’s average would have been +4 instead of -1 at 10 years (+8 vs +2 over the last 5)
While the SEC and Big Ten had significantly better average MCR results at 35th and 43rd, the Big 12 and ACC averages were very similar at 52nd and 53rd respectively. The Big12 teams accomplished this result despite “inferior talent” as far as the recruiting rankings go with an average TTR of 51st, 11 places lower than the ACC’s 40th.
No individual team in the Big12 finished with an average TTR above 30th over the total 10 yr span, while TCU has climbed up to 27th in the last 5 yr data set. This “talent gap” issue has been highlighted by many as putting a ceiling on the league as a whole. While recent history has shown that elite talent is required to reach the championship levels of the sport, an argument might be made that, if a team is to buck this trend, it might come from the Big 12 with their history of having so many teams overperforming their talent level.
ACC:
The ACC might be considered the most disappointing conference as a whole given:
- They are trending worse over the last 5 years
- Despite having similar “raw” underperforming figures of the SEC and Big Ten, they didn’t have the same “statistical hill to climb” of those conferences who started with a lower TTR number
Clemson stands out as the only ACC “Big Football Brand” to not massively underperform their talent level. Florida State and Miami are the other two big brands, but both Florida-based schools have been major underperformers.
The same three schools were the ACC’s only overperformers for both 10 and 5 yrs: Louisville, SMU, and Wake Forest, though the latter had the statistical benefit of having a poor TTR figure (similar to Kansas St and BYU in the Big 12.)
Independents:
Only 2 independent teams remain, and they are very different. Notre Dame deserves kudos for their consistency and maintained high level talent acquisition and on-field results. The fact that the Fighting Irish have not won a national championship since 1988 is clearly and understandably a key point of frustration to their fanbase. However, UConn’s football fans probably scoff at the “frustration” Notre Dame fans feel as a “first-world problems” type of situation.
Next Up:
The next installment in this series will look more deeply into the geographic, regional, and population-based trends and biases in TTR and MCR results, including the “time zones.” As a tease, there was indeed a noticeable time-zone bias detected, but it’s probably not what you’re thinking.
